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An index of two bets | Signals and Noise Premium, August 21

Aug 21, 2026
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This week's Premium edition is ready. Here is what is inside:

The Members Message: the bubble nobody questions. The AI claims being waved through, the debt and private credit chicanery behind them, and why we think technopia and finance end this one together. The members video is linked inside.

The Oz Economy: the ASX 200 is two bets. Almost 60% of the index sits in financials and materials, and BHP and CBA alone are 21.7%. It breaks when housing stalls, and it breaks again when Chinese steel demand falls. Plus immigration moving to the centre of the property story.

Geopolitics: countries told to pick a side, and AI borrowing now large enough to lift interest rates for the whole economy. Watch bond yields, not just share prices.

Special Study: the rare earth bottleneck is people, not deposits. Why the West has forgotten how to process the metal, and the knowledge China will not give up.

This week's podcast and the full show notes, plus the monthly coaching call with Steve, Tom and Jacob.

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