Signals and Noise Premium

Apr 24, 2026

This week's Premium edition is ready.

It was a heavy week. NAB is now preparing for recession. Cochlear collapsed 40.7%. The war drags on with no off-ramp in sight. Asia is fracturing under supply chain pressure. And the federal government is exploring a $10 billion oil refinery.

Here is what is inside:

Steve's Review: Geopolitics, the ceasefire extension, Iran refusing talks, and the new Fed Chair nominee's hawkish stance
Steve's Review: The Oz Economy, NAB's 45% recession probability, $706m in provisions, petrol and inflation data, and why the government is now on a war footing
The ASX: down ~2%, Cochlear's 40.7% single-day wipeout, and why confession season is just getting started
Special Topic: Don't Lose Money, time is your superpower, the 3 Wells explained, and why patience is a competitive advantage
Special Topic: Commodities and critical minerals, the Serra Verde acquisition, Lynas record revenue, and Trump's trade chief pressuring allies
This week's members video (embedded, ready to watch)
TMM Podcast: latest episode on Spotify
Interactive loss recovery calculator (pre-loaded with Cochlear's 40.7% drop)
Book of the week: Bollinger on Bollinger Bands

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22/05/2026 Access Full Newsletter Here This week's Premium edition is ready. The ships that left the Gulf before the conflict have now arrived. From here, supply shortages become a probability, not a hypothetical. If markets reprice the affected companies, it will happen quickly. Steve frames the week through that lens, and through the much bigger regime shift now reshaping how wealth gets bui...