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Steve dug up an old CBS MarketWatch article this week, published the day before the year 2000 began. The opening line: "It's tough to find the pessimists: nary a bear has stirred on Wall Street this season." Twelve weeks later the S&P 500 began the slide that would erase nearly half its value. The CAPE then was 44.2. The CAPE today is 42.7.

We are not predicting a crash. We are pointing out that universal bullishness at extreme valuations has historically been one of the most reliable contrary indicators in markets. The 1999 article is a useful artefact to hold up against the consensus of 2026.

Here is what is inside:

• The Members Message: the 1999 CBS MarketWatch article reproduced in full, the CAPE 44.2 vs 42.7 comparison, and the case for why this matters
• This week's TMM Podcast Show Notes document with key takeaways, chapter markers, deep topic blocks, and full resource list
• Steve's Weekly Video Review linked through to YouTube
• The Oz Economy: Australia Q1 GDP at 0.3% (softest since Q2 2024), three stat cards showing the data centre distortion, the Westpac report linked, the possible Q2 contraction warning, and the Spachus Aus tweet recreated showing days-on-market climbing across every major capital
• The Bernard Baruch quote: "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars."
• The ASX and CAPE: full gauge update showing 42.7, now just 1.5 points from the all-time dot-com high of 44.2
• Special Topic: Rare Earths environmental concerns, the FT coverage, the Lynas Malaysia template, and why selectivity wins
• Monthly Coaching Call reminder: live with Steve, Tom and Jacob
• TMM Podcast: this week's episode

Read the full edition below.