What the CGT changes actually cost (the maths) - Signals & Noise Premium, June 19

This week's Premium edition is ready.

Rather than argue about the tax changes in the abstract, we walk through the real numbers. On a $100,000 gain held a decade, the Budget 2026 CGT changes cost about $4,011, or 0.2% per year of return. That is not nothing, but it is a long way from the "investment will collapse" narrative. The deeper lesson holds: if a 0.2% per year tax change is enough to stop you investing, the investment was never strong enough to begin with.

Here is what is inside:

• The Members Message: the tax myth, the monopoly thought experiment, and why investing for "tax reasons" usually loses money, with the members video linked inside
• This week's podcast show notes: The Storm Before the Calm, plus both current episodes linked on Spotify
• The worked CGT example: the full breakdown showing $84,000 kept under current law versus $79,989 under the new rules, the taxable gain split, and what the inflation assumption does to the result
• Steve's Review: Geopolitics, the 60-day ceasefire and why we remain doubtful this is the end
• The Oz Economy: "here comes Pauline", the Guardian piece on Gen X turning to One Nation, the property cash-flow reality, the Tim Lawless "needle in a haystack" piece, and the gross rental yields chart (houses 3.12%, units 4.47%)
• Both property deep dives linked: The Asymmetry Edge and Now Where?
• The ASX and CAPE: full gauge at 41.4, second only to 1999, with an implied future return of around 1.6% per year
• Special Topic 1: AI, why without profits the dream dies, and OpenAI's $38.5 billion loss laid out in full ahead of the IPOs, with our view that this sector could be the catalyst for the reversal just as dot-com was in 2000
• Special Topic 2: Critical Metals, the Reuters report that some minerals are "nearly unobtainable" from China, and what impacted firms are now doing
• Special Topic 3: Wealth Building, the emerging markets case, with the chart showing MSCI EM up 85% while the S&P 500 fell 9% from 1999 to 2003, the last time the US was this overvalued
• Monthly Coaching Call reminder: live with Steve, Tom and Jacob
• TMM Podcast: this week's episode and both Spotify links

Read the full edition below.