Ending March 27, 2026

The Members Message 

When volatility strikes, it pays to stay calm, put current events into perspective and refer back to your system. Take action if needs be. 

Daily moves can often lure us into actions that in cooler moments we would defer. It is easy to get caught up in the large swings and believe there are dangers and rewards for quik thinking. The reality is having a system or plan grounds you and when you are able to take a step back you can see that we often better placed if we let high volatility periods pass. 

Let's step back and have a look at history. Since the March 2009 low, the S&P 500 has undergone a stellar performance up around 500%. 

Any view considering the CAPE low to high, would understand that anyone investing now is playing with fire, essentially arguing this time is different. 

Since the Covid low in 2020 the US market has risen over 200%. 

Steve's Review 

Geopolitics

The war continues and we don't see too many off ramps for either side. Given Trump is sending troops, we have a strong suspicion that Trump may be planning to capture Iranian oil infrastructure. 

The Oz Economy

Australia is exposed to the downsides of this war. But the country that lives by economic efficiencies, not strategic interests will always be fragile. 

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Expect to see more of this - example 1. 

Breaking: Governments announce $2b bailout for Australia's lar... Rio Tinto, the federal and state governments, have struck a landmark partnership to secure a long-term future for Australia's largest alu... www.abc.net.au

Expect to see more of this - example 2. 

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The ASX

The ASX finishes the week around 1% higher, but most techical indicators are pointing to a continued drawdown. High volatility is still in play making it difficult to discuss short term moves. The ASX remains slightly overvalued, so caution is still warrented. 

Below the 200 simple moving average. Refer to last week's Members Message.