A 521% run sounds great, until you see the full cycle | Signals and Noise, September 4
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This week's Signals & Noise looks at something most "market is up 521% since 2009" headlines leave out: a bull run is only half a cycle. We take $1,000 through every complete bull-and-bear cycle since 1877 to show what a full cycle actually pays an investor, and it is a very different number to the one you usually see quoted.
Also in this issue: the private credit cracks we...
Doubt is not pleasant, but certainty is absurd | Signals and Noise, August 28
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This week's Signals & Noise is up, built around a line from Voltaire: "Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd."
We look at why getting comfortable with uncertainty is the actual skill in investing, not chasing a forecast. Also in this issue: a rare, detailed note from a member working inside private lending on how opaque that corner of the credit market ...
The bubble nobody is questioning | Signals and Noise, August 21
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: the AI bubble, and the fact that almost nobody is questioning it. CEOs are promising to cure cancer in five years, telling us money will soon stop mattering, and guiding to $200 billion of revenue by 2030 against a current quarter of $6.7 billion, all with next to no pushback from the press. Bubbles are normal near a top. The ...
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