Cash pays 5.5%. What is your money doing?| Signals and Noise, August 14
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There is an iron law of investing. It is called opportunity cost.
Right now, risk-free cash pays around 5.5% a year. That is the bar every other investment has to clear after risk.
The S&P 500 dividend yield is now 1.03%, the lowest ever recorded. The ASX 300 sits at about 3%...
Aug 15, 2026
Preparation, not prediction | Signals and Noise, August 7
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: you do not need to predict the fire to survive it, you need insurance. We break down how to build a portfolio that is not fragile, ideally one that is robust or even anti-fragile, so a market fall holds no fear. It is the frame ...
Aug 08, 2026
Is the property game finally over? Signals and Noise, July 31
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Most investors fail for two reasons. They base risk on their age instead of what markets actually cost today. And they get pulled into daily noise instead of thinking about how time compounds a portfolio.
In this week's free edition:
- This week's podcast, The Property Game I...
Aug 01, 2026
Every country is holding a chokepoint right now | Signals and Noise, July 24
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Oil, chips, credit and a property market that keeps rolling over.
Thanks to those who let us know that our links we're broken! This one should be working :)Â
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This week's Signals & Noise is up, and it is a busy one.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by two...
Jul 25, 2026
Every country is holding a chokepoint right now | Signals and Noise, July 24
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Oil, chips, credit and a property market that keeps rolling over.
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This week's Signals & Noise is up, and it is a busy one.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by two thirds since the Iran ceasefire came apart, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenf...
Jul 25, 2026
Most stocks lose money | Signals and Noise, July 17
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: most stocks lose money. A study out of Arizona State tracked every US stock from 1926 to 2025, 29,754 companies, and found that just 1,082 of them created all the net wealth. The median stock actually lost 6.87%. The market ha...
Jul 17, 2026
The biases that cost you money | Signals and Noise, July 10
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: we all carry investing biases without noticing, and the ones that go unchecked are the ones that cost money. Recency, availability, anchoring, priming, frequency and media bias, six mental shortcuts that get emotion to crowd o...
Jul 11, 2026
Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. Signals and Noise, July 3
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This week's Signals & Noise is live, and it is a different beast. We have rebuilt the newsletter from the ground up as a full magazine-style issue. Have a look, it is worth the click on its own.
The theme this week: market tops are a process, not a point. The contrarian loo...
Jul 04, 2026
4 weeks of Premium, free (ends June 30) | Signals & Noise June 26
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This week's Signals & Noise is live, and there is a deadline attached.
Until June 30, you can get four weeks of Signals & Noise Premium completely free. That includes next week's live coaching call with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the full weekly edition, the members video, and t...
Jun 27, 2026
The tax myth that costs investors money | Signals & Noise, June 19
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This week's Signals & Noise is live.
With the recent tax changes, it is worth looking past the speculation and the bias to see what the impacts really are. The idea that investment simply stops because of tax is almost certainly wrong. Imagine a market where buyers exist but,...
Jun 20, 2026
The oil clock is ticking | Signals and Noise, June 12
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This week's Signals & Noise is live.
One of the more vexing issues right now is the outlook for oil. Inventories are falling, and at some point we arrive at a severe shortage. That point is expected to be around July or August. From there, demand destruction, and most likely ...
Jun 12, 2026
Signals and Noise
Week ending June 5th 2026
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This week's Signals & Noise is live.
Steve dug up an old article this week. The headline read "Wall Street's Outlook for 2000," published by CBS MarketWatch on December 31, 1999. The opening line: "It's not easy to find a good debate brewing among mark...
Jun 05, 2026
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