Prepare, Don't Predict | Signals and Noise, September 25
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Hi there,
This week's free Signals & Noise is live, and it's setting up something bigger.
We think the next decade looks nothing like the last one. The S&P bull run we've all gotten used to is over, and the job now is to prepare for higher volatility. This week's issue walks t...
Sep 26, 2026
They have it completely backwards | Signals and Noise, September 18
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Every growing economy needs more debt somewhere in the system, either from private borrowing or from a bigger government deficit. The US budget deficit is growing, and the US economy is running at roughly 2.75% real growth. That is not a coincidence.
This week's Signals & Nois...
Sep 18, 2026
The world as we knew it no longer exists | Signals and Noise, September 11
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"The world as we knew it no longer exists." That is not us talking, it is the Netherlands' own scientific council advising their government on economic policy. We have been saying it for two years. It is now showing up in the advice institutions give governments.
This week's ...
Sep 12, 2026
A 521% run sounds great, until you see the full cycle | Signals and Noise, September 4
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This week's Signals & Noise looks at something most "market is up 521% since 2009" headlines leave out: a bull run is only half a cycle. We take $1,000 through every complete bull-and-bear cycle since 1877 to show what a full cycle actually pays an investor, and it is a very ...
Sep 04, 2026
Doubt is not pleasant, but certainty is absurd | Signals and Noise, August 28
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This week's Signals & Noise is up, built around a line from Voltaire: "Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd."
We look at why getting comfortable with uncertainty is the actual skill in investing, not chasing a forecast. Also in this issue: a rare, detail...
Aug 28, 2026
The bubble nobody is questioning | Signals and Noise, August 21
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: the AI bubble, and the fact that almost nobody is questioning it. CEOs are promising to cure cancer in five years, telling us money will soon stop mattering, and guiding to $200 billion of revenue by 2030 against a current quart...
Aug 21, 2026
Cash pays 5.5%. What is your money doing?| Signals and Noise, August 14
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There is an iron law of investing. It is called opportunity cost.
Right now, risk-free cash pays around 5.5% a year. That is the bar every other investment has to clear after risk.
The S&P 500 dividend yield is now 1.03%, the lowest ever recorded. The ASX 300 sits at about 3%...
Aug 15, 2026
Preparation, not prediction | Signals and Noise, August 7
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: you do not need to predict the fire to survive it, you need insurance. We break down how to build a portfolio that is not fragile, ideally one that is robust or even anti-fragile, so a market fall holds no fear. It is the frame ...
Aug 08, 2026
Is the property game finally over? Signals and Noise, July 31
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Most investors fail for two reasons. They base risk on their age instead of what markets actually cost today. And they get pulled into daily noise instead of thinking about how time compounds a portfolio.
In this week's free edition:
- This week's podcast, The Property Game I...
Aug 01, 2026
Every country is holding a chokepoint right now | Signals and Noise, July 24
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Oil, chips, credit and a property market that keeps rolling over.
Thanks to those who let us know that our links we're broken! This one should be working :)Â
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This week's Signals & Noise is up, and it is a busy one.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by two...
Jul 25, 2026
Every country is holding a chokepoint right now | Signals and Noise, July 24
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Oil, chips, credit and a property market that keeps rolling over.
Access NewsletterÂ
This week's Signals & Noise is up, and it is a busy one.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by two thirds since the Iran ceasefire came apart, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenf...
Jul 25, 2026
Most stocks lose money | Signals and Noise, July 17
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: most stocks lose money. A study out of Arizona State tracked every US stock from 1926 to 2025, 29,754 companies, and found that just 1,082 of them created all the net wealth. The median stock actually lost 6.87%. The market ha...
Jul 17, 2026
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