The biases that cost you money | Signals and Noise, July 10
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This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: we all carry investing biases without noticing, and the ones that go unchecked are the ones that cost money. Recency, availability, anchoring, priming, frequency and media bias, six mental shortcuts that get emotion to crowd o...
Jul 11, 2026
Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. Signals and Noise, July 3
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This week's Signals & Noise is live, and it is a different beast. We have rebuilt the newsletter from the ground up as a full magazine-style issue. Have a look, it is worth the click on its own.
The theme this week: market tops are a process, not a point. The contrarian loo...
Jul 04, 2026
4 weeks of Premium, free (ends June 30) | Signals & Noise June 26
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This week's Signals & Noise is live, and there is a deadline attached.
Until June 30, you can get four weeks of Signals & Noise Premium completely free. That includes next week's live coaching call with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the full weekly edition, the members video, and t...
Jun 27, 2026
The tax myth that costs investors money | Signals & Noise, June 19
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With the recent tax changes, it is worth looking past the speculation and the bias to see what the impacts really are. The idea that investment simply stops because of tax is almost certainly wrong. Imagine a market where buyers exist but,...
Jun 20, 2026
The oil clock is ticking | Signals and Noise, June 12
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One of the more vexing issues right now is the outlook for oil. Inventories are falling, and at some point we arrive at a severe shortage. That point is expected to be around July or August. From there, demand destruction, and most likely ...
Jun 12, 2026
Signals and Noise
Week ending June 5th 2026
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Steve dug up an old article this week. The headline read "Wall Street's Outlook for 2000," published by CBS MarketWatch on December 31, 1999. The opening line: "It's not easy to find a good debate brewing among mark...
Jun 05, 2026
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Week ending May 29th 2026
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At some point the impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure are going to bite. The ships that left the Gulf before the conflict have arrived. From here, supply shortages move from theoretical to physical. Energy exper...
May 29, 2026
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Week ending May 22nd 2026
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By now, all the ships loaded with oil and other goods that left the Gulf before the conflict have reached their destination. From here, the probability of supply shortages rises sharply. If we are right, stock marke...
May 22, 2026
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Week ending May 15th 2026
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On Monday, CSL fell 16% in a single day. The stock now sits at $120, down from $290 in 2025. That is a 57% loss in twelve months for one of the most loved blue-chips on the ASX. A decade of gains, gone.
The fund m...
May 16, 2026
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Week ending May 8th 2026
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"It's time in the market, not timing the market." You have heard it a thousand times. It is the most repeated piece of advice in the financial industry. It is also, on the current numbers, demonstrably wrong.
The S...
May 08, 2026
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Week ending May 1st 2026
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The era of free markets is ending. Governments are no longer standing back and letting the private sector lead. They are picking winners, punishing losers...
May 01, 2026
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Week ending 24th April
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The ceasefire was extended but Iran refuses to talk. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Oil is above $96. NAB now puts the chance of recession at 45%, essentially a coin flip. And Cochlear lost 40.7% in a single ...
Apr 24, 2026
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