The oil clock is ticking | Signals and Noise, June 12
This week's Signals & Noise is live.
One of the more vexing issues right now is the outlook for oil. Inventories are falling, and at some point we arrive at a severe shortage. That point is expected to be around July or August. From there, demand destruction, and most likely recession, as demand for products falls and unemployment starts rising.
Then what? We think governments act, and the model is COVID. One-off payments to keep markets stable, followed eventually by a reckoning with the considerable debt burden sitting in mortgages.
In this week's free edition you get the opener, the oil thesis, and this week's podcast episode.
Premium members also received the JP Morgan oil inventories chart showing 2026 stocks plunging below every year since 2017 with the July/August window mapped, the rare earth price table (yttrium up 14,000% since April 2025), the century-long study of what happens when cash-rich giants start selling stock now that Google has raised $84.7 billion in its first issuance in 20 years, the AI economics breakdown and the $1.1 trillion question, the property turn with Westpac investor loans down 20% in three weeks, the CAPE gauge at 42, and this week's members video.
The investors who do well through what follows will be the ones positioned before July, not after. That preparation is what Premium is for.
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