A 521% run sounds great, until you see the full cycle | Signals and Noise, September 4

Sep 04, 2026

This week's Signals & Noise looks at something most "market is up 521% since 2009" headlines leave out: a bull run is only half a cycle. We take $1,000 through every complete bull-and-bear cycle since 1877 to show what a full cycle actually pays an investor, and it is a very different number to the one you usually see quoted.

Also in this issue: the private credit cracks we flagged months ago are now showing up for real, a major NSW developer has collapsed owing more than $3.5 billion, and investor redemptions are being suspended across several funds. We look at what regulators are now saying, and what it means if you are exposed through your super.

Steve, Tom & Jacob The TMM Team

This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

Responses

Join the conversation

t("newsletters.loading")

Doubt is not pleasant, but certainty is absurd | Signals and Noise, August 28

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is up, built around a line from Voltaire: "Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd." We look at why getting comfortable with uncertainty is the actual skill in investing, not chasing a forecast. Also in this issue: a rare, detailed note from a member working inside private lending on how opaque that corner of the credit market ...

The bubble nobody is questioning | Signals and Noise, August 21

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: the AI bubble, and the fact that almost nobody is questioning it. CEOs are promising to cure cancer in five years, telling us money will soon stop mattering, and guiding to $200 billion of revenue by 2030 against a current quarter of $6.7 billion, all with next to no pushback from the press. Bubbles are normal near a top. The ...

Cash pays 5.5%. What is your money doing?| Signals and Noise, August 14

Access Newsletter There is an iron law of investing. It is called opportunity cost. Right now, risk-free cash pays around 5.5% a year. That is the bar every other investment has to clear after risk. The S&P 500 dividend yield is now 1.03%, the lowest ever recorded. The ASX 300 sits at about 3%, well below cash. And the sudden wave of private credit offerings quoting 7.5% and 8% paid monthly?...

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Cut through the noise. Each week, Signals & Noise delivers clear, evidence-based insights to help you think critically about markets, cycles, and risk. Just the signals that matter, backed by data and experience. For free, get key market summaries, visual charts, macro signals, decision-making tools, and a contrarian perspective. Smart, independent thinking sent straight to your inbox in under five minutes a week.

A 521% run sounds great, until you see the full cycle | Signals and Noise, September 4

Responses

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Subscribe for Free