The Full Cycle
A 521% run since March 2009 sounds impressive, until you look at the full bull and bear cycle. This week: what a complete market cycle actually pays, and the private credit cracks we flagged months ago now showing up in the headlines.
Since the March 2009 low, the US market has returned around 521% in real terms. Impressive, but it is only half the story. A bull market on its own is not what an investor actually receives, you have to look at the full cycle, bull and bear together, to see the real number. This week we take $1,000 through every complete market cycle since 1877 to show what that actually means.
… the full cycle table, and why a 60% loss following a 333% gain wipes out roughly 200 percentage points of it, not just a third …
… the private credit cracks ASIC warned about, now visible in a $3.5 billion developer collapse and a wave of investor redemption suspensions, plus what it means for property-exposed lending …
… the housing downturn now touching 93% of capital city suburbs, and why it may be the start of something longer …
The Weekly Video Review, Steve, Tom and Jacob on camera walking through this week's whole issue
The geopolitics chapter: the strain building on Iran, the housing downturn, and the trade pressure squeezing Europe's car makers
The Oz Economy deep dive: the private credit collapse in full, ASIC and the RBA's own words on it, and what it means for property investors
Special Topics: the complete full-cycle returns table back to 1877, and the CAPE ratio chart lined up against every market top and bottom
The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.
This week's episode is coming, hit follow now on your podcast platform so it lands in your feed the moment it goes live.
Understanding a full market cycle starts with understanding your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.
The full weekly issue, monthly live coaching calls with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the TMM Learning Hub, the members video and every show notes document. The average financial adviser charges around $7,000 a year. This is $9.99 a week, and you keep the knowledge forever.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Total Money Management | AFSL 568642
