Signals and Noise Free
Week ending May 8th 2026
This week's Signals & Noise is live.
"It's time in the market, not timing the market." You have heard it a thousand times. It is the most repeated piece of advice in the financial industry. It is also, on the current numbers, demonstrably wrong.
The S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.5%. That is a P/E of 66. The earnings yield is lower than bonds. Cash now beats US equity earnings yield, something that has not been true in a generation. Howard Marks recently described the one number that guarantees you won't make money: when CAPE has historically traded above 23, the next 10 years have delivered roughly zero. The CAPE is now 31.
In this week's free edition you'll get the opener, the framework, and a glimpse of why Australia looks so different to the US right now.
For the full picture, including Steve's expected returns table across every asset class, the Buffett Indicator deep dive comparing the US (231%) to Australia (96%), the Howard Marks scatter chart, the Petrobras energy thesis, the Japan-Australia critical minerals partnership, and this week's members video, you'll need Premium.
We've exteneded our 2 weeks free premium offer due to high demand
Read the full free edition below.
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