"It's time in the market, not timing the market." You have heard it a thousand times. It is the most repeated piece of advice in the financial industry. It is also, on the current numbers, demonstrably wrong.

One trait that separates investors who succeed from those who fail is the willingness to change perspective when the evidence demands it. Most investors do the opposite. They cling to a belief, search desperately for counter-arguments to defend it, and refuse to update even when the maths stops adding up.

So for those who still believe time in the market always works, here is what you are up against right now. The S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.5%. That is a P/E of 66. The earnings yield is 3.22%, lower than bonds. Cash beats US equity earnings yield. That has not been true in a generation. Howard Marks recently spoke about the one number that guarantees you won't make money: when the S&P 500 has historically traded above CAPE 23, the next 10 years have delivered roughly zero in annualised returns. The CAPE is now 31. The Buffett Indicator is at 231% in the US, against Australia's 96%, and the gap between the two countries on every valuation measure is the widest it has been in …

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