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The tax myth that costs investors money | Signals & Noise, June 19

Jun 20, 2026
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With the recent tax changes, it is worth looking past the speculation and the bias to see what the impacts really are. The idea that investment simply stops because of tax is almost certainly wrong. Imagine a market where buyers exist but, according to the doomsayers, nobody will invest because of those dreaded taxes. There is always one person who realises that if that were true, they could step in and have a near monopoly, because nobody else wants to.

The deeper point is one we have made for years. If taxes drive your decision, for better or worse, that is probably not a good decision-making process. We have watched plenty of people invest for "tax reasons" and lose money, because the thing being sold is the deduction, not the asset.

In this week's free edition you get the opener, the tax-myth argument, and this week's podcast.

Premium members also received the worked example showing exactly what the Budget 2026 CGT changes cost on a $100,000 gain (the answer surprises most people), Steve's breakdown of why so few property investors ever reach positive cash flow, the gross rental yield data, the 60-day ceasefire skepticism, the "here comes Pauline" piece on Gen X turning to One Nation, the CAPE at 41.4, OpenAI's $38.5 billion loss ahead of the IPOs, the critical minerals supply crisis, and the chart showing emerging markets up 85% while the S&P lost 9% the last time the US was this overvalued.

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