Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. Signals and Noise, July 3
This week's Signals & Noise is live, and it is a different beast. We have rebuilt the newsletter from the ground up as a full magazine-style issue. Have a look, it is worth the click on its own.
The theme this week: market tops are a process, not a point. The contrarian looks foolish for six to twelve months before being right, and the declines that follow are littered with bear market rallies that fool buy-and-hold investors every time. It happened in 1929, 1973, 2000 and 2008.
Premium members also received the Australian price-to-income charts (now double the historical average), the CAPE panel at 41.6, the full Japan lost-decades study with all four giant bear rallies mapped, and the calls we have been making for years: gold, Woodside, semiconductors, emerging markets, energy, oil, Korea. The same process, applied for over 25 years, averaging more than 30% year on year.
Plus this week's special podcast: a full roundtable on Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle, free for everyone, with the complete show notes document.
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