They have it completely backwards | Signals and Noise, September 18
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Every growing economy needs more debt somewhere in the system, either from private borrowing or from a bigger government deficit. The US budget deficit is growing, and the US economy is running at roughly 2.75% real growth. That is not a coincidence.
This week's Signals & Noise looks at why we think the debate has it backwards, leveraged property speculation gets a free pass...
The world as we knew it no longer exists | Signals and Noise, September 11
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"The world as we knew it no longer exists." That is not us talking, it is the Netherlands' own scientific council advising their government on economic policy. We have been saying it for two years. It is now showing up in the advice institutions give governments.
This week's Signals & Noise looks at what that shift means for Europe's exposure to a Chinese export machine and...
A 521% run sounds great, until you see the full cycle | Signals and Noise, September 4
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This week's Signals & Noise looks at something most "market is up 521% since 2009" headlines leave out: a bull run is only half a cycle. We take $1,000 through every complete bull-and-bear cycle since 1877 to show what a full cycle actually pays an investor, and it is a very different number to the one you usually see quoted.
Also in this issue: the private credit cracks we...
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