Preparation, Not Prediction

The world looks increasingly uncertain, and uncertainty usually breeds indecision as people try to work out how to be positioned. Our answer is simple: prepare for the impact rather than try to predict the event. If your home insurance pays out when the house burns down, you do not spend your days worrying about when the fire will hit. You know the odds are low and the consequences severe, so you prepare.

Markets are the same. We cannot tell you when the fall comes, but we can make sure the portfolio is not fragile. At a minimum we want it robust, where a loss is painful but temporary, and ideally anti-fragile, where a decline holds no fear because we are positioned to gain from it …

Prepared beats predicting. Premium members get the full framework, the charts and the calls, every week.

This week Steve, Tom and Jacob work through the week that was, from an uncertain war to a property market that has clearly turned. Free listeners get the full episode.

Building an anti-fragile portfolio starts with knowing your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.