Week ending 24th April
This week's Signals & Noise is live.
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The ceasefire was extended but Iran refuses to talk. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Oil is above $96. NAB now puts the chance of recession at 45%, essentially a coin flip. And Cochlear lost 40.7% in a single session on Wednesday, wiping out $4 billion in value.
In this week's free edition:
- Why "inflation or demand destruction" is the wrong question (the answer is both)
- NAB's downside scenario: economy shrinks 2%, unemployment above 9%, house prices collapse
- The CAPE at ~36.5, still more than double its historical median
- Book of the week: Bollinger on Bollinger Bands
- This week's podcast episode on Spotify
Premium members also received Steve's full geopolitics and Oz economy review, the Cochlear deep dive, the 3 Wells strategy breakdown, this week's members-only video, critical minerals update, and the interactive loss recovery calculator.
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