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The Signal and Noise

Dec 12, 2025
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Ending December 12, 2025

Video Overview 

Signals and Noise December 12th

 

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT

 

One comment you here often is the panic surrounding the size of the government deficit. In Australia, the government deficit is miniscule  compared to other countries. You won't see higher economic growth unless we get an investment boom or we see a rise in personal debt levels which are already a record levels. 

Private debt is what we should be worried about. And private debt in Australia is extermely high. That's where the focus should be. When markets crash, we should expect higher government deficits and in that case Australia is well placed with low overall government debt and a low annual debt to GDP ratio. 

 

Macro Moments 

  • US unemployment will rise with lay-offs and fed rate cut. Not a good sign.
  • China reaches $1 trillion in exports. 
  • Bail-outs for US farmers. Expect more government subsidies. 
  • The Fed cuts rates as expected. The RBA doesn't.
  • Complexities of building a supply chain. This tells you we have a lot of pain and uncertainty coming. 

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