← Back to all posts

The Signal and Noise

Dec 12, 2025
Follow Us!

Ending December 12, 2025

Video Overview 

Signals and Noise December 12th

 

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT

 

One comment you here often is the panic surrounding the size of the government deficit. In Australia, the government deficit is miniscule  compared to other countries. You won't see higher economic growth unless we get an investment boom or we see a rise in personal debt levels which are already a record levels. 

Private debt is what we should be worried about. And private debt in Australia is extermely high. That's where the focus should be. When markets crash, we should expect higher government deficits and in that case Australia is well placed with low overall government debt and a low annual debt to GDP ratio. 

 

Macro Moments 

  • US unemployment will rise with lay-offs and fed rate cut. Not a good sign.
  • China reaches $1 trillion in exports. 
  • Bail-outs for US farmers. Expect more government subsidies. 
  • The Fed cuts rates as expected. The RBA doesn't.
  • Complexities of building a supply chain. This tells you we have a lot of pain and uncertainty coming. 

    Where Would I Put a US Semiconductor Fab? || Peter Zeihan

    If I were tasked with finding a location for a US-based semiconductor fabrication facility, where would I put it? Join the Patreon here: ...

    www.youtube.com

     

     

    Get Premium to keep reading

    Join Signals & Noise Premium for deeper guidance and practical tools to strengthen your investing decisions.

    You’ll get live coaching calls each month, weekly ETF and stock reviews, extended editions of this newsletter, priority Q&A, macro insights, sector scorecards, and access to our full library of mini-courses and past coaching sessions.

This post is for paying subscribers only

Already have an account? Log in

Prepare, Don't Predict | Signals and Noise, September 25
  Access Newsletter Hi there, This week's free Signals & Noise is live, and it's setting up something bigger. We think the next decade looks nothing like the last one. The S&P bull run we've all gotten used to is over, and the job now is to prepare for higher volatility. This week's issue walks through why, plus the earnings yield math that matters more than the daily price ever will. Premium m...
They have it completely backwards | Signals and Noise, September 18
  Access Newsletter Every growing economy needs more debt somewhere in the system, either from private borrowing or from a bigger government deficit. The US budget deficit is growing, and the US economy is running at roughly 2.75% real growth. That is not a coincidence. This week's Signals & Noise looks at why we think the debate has it backwards, leveraged property speculation gets a free pass...
The world as we knew it no longer exists | Signals and Noise, September 11
  Access Newsletter  "The world as we knew it no longer exists." That is not us talking, it is the Netherlands' own scientific council advising their government on economic policy. We have been saying it for two years. It is now showing up in the advice institutions give governments. This week's Signals & Noise looks at what that shift means for Europe's exposure to a Chinese export machine and...

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Cut through the noise. Each week, Signals & Noise delivers clear, evidence-based insights to help you think critically about markets, cycles, and risk. Just the signals that matter, backed by data and experience. For free, get key market summaries, visual charts, macro signals, decision-making tools, and a contrarian perspective. Smart, independent thinking sent straight to your inbox in under five minutes a week.

Subscribe for Free

Join 1,900+ serious investors; get our latest content including weekly market updates, portfolio reviews, blogs, and our podcast to your inbox, every Saturday

Not Financial Advice