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The Signals and Noise

Oct 18, 2025
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Ending October 17, 2025

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Signals and Noise October 17

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THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT

The main issue of concern is how the AI bubble bursts. This is not even a debate, with the only question is how it all plays out. And we already know that. 

'Absolutely' a market bubble: Wall Street sounds the alarm on ...

Wall Street is warning the AI trade may be overheating as record spending, investor optimism, and soaring valuations fuel fresh fears of ...

finance.yahoo.com

Breakingviews - There's no such thing as a 'good' bubble

Tech titans like Jeff Bezos argue the long-term benefits to society from artificial intelligence outweigh the losses investors may suffer...

www.reuters.com

Short Stories

  • Deglobalisation - Slowly, then all at once.
  • Conflict - The teams have been selected.
  • Price Controls - Government and supply chains.
  • Sector and Industries - The old is new.

 

The Oz Economy

We are moving into the big leagues folks. Buckle up. 

Australia, United States strengthen defence ties with guided w...

Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy has announced the signing of a joint statement of intent and the opening of a new joint office t...

www.defenceconnect.com.au

As we discussed in the May 2025 Coaching call, rare earths and other precious metals are going to play a central role in the future of the all economies. And now they are.

 

 

Something to keep an eye on. If unemployment continues to rise then the momentum without additional government spending or private borrowing will be lower economic growth and lower asset prices, especially houses. 

Breaking: Australia's unemployment rate jumps to 4.5pc

Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.

www.abc.net.au

Lesson of the Week

 

At this point in the cycle, it can appear safe to be invested since everyone knows the market will continue to rise. But many investors fail to understand that at these valuations, it is the unexpected event that changes investor behavior. And when the market is expensive, it changes fast. 

 

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4 weeks of Premium, free (ends June 30) | Signals & Noise June 26
  Access Newsletter    This week's Signals & Noise is live, and there is a deadline attached. Until June 30, you can get four weeks of Signals & Noise Premium completely free. That includes next week's live coaching call with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the full weekly edition, the members video, and the TMM Learning Hub. Use code SN4WF at checkout. Cancel anytime. Now to this week. In finance theory...
The tax myth that costs investors money | Signals & Noise, June 19
  Access Newsletter  This week's Signals & Noise is live. With the recent tax changes, it is worth looking past the speculation and the bias to see what the impacts really are. The idea that investment simply stops because of tax is almost certainly wrong. Imagine a market where buyers exist but, according to the doomsayers, nobody will invest because of those dreaded taxes. There is always one...
The oil clock is ticking | Signals and Noise, June 12
  Access Newsletter  This week's Signals & Noise is live. One of the more vexing issues right now is the outlook for oil. Inventories are falling, and at some point we arrive at a severe shortage. That point is expected to be around July or August. From there, demand destruction, and most likely recession, as demand for products falls and unemployment starts rising. Then what? We think governme...

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