The Signals and Noise

Apr 18, 2026

Ending April 17, 2026

Hi Members

This week’s free edition of Signals & Noise is now live.

This week's free edition covers the Members Message in full, including the Stanley Drukenmiller story on groupthink and what it means for how you approach expensive markets right now.

We also give you a snapshot of this week's key themes: trade war escalation, Australia's softening property market, and the compounding framework that explains why most investors will underperform over the long term.

The full analysis, including the Oz economy breakdown, commodities deep dive, investor tools, and Steve's members video, is available in the Premium edition this week.

You can read this week’s free edition here:

Access Newsletter

Responses

Join the conversation

t("newsletters.loading")

Doubt is not pleasant, but certainty is absurd | Signals and Noise, August 28

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is up, built around a line from Voltaire: "Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd." We look at why getting comfortable with uncertainty is the actual skill in investing, not chasing a forecast. Also in this issue: a rare, detailed note from a member working inside private lending on how opaque that corner of the credit market ...

The bubble nobody is questioning | Signals and Noise, August 21

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is live. The theme: the AI bubble, and the fact that almost nobody is questioning it. CEOs are promising to cure cancer in five years, telling us money will soon stop mattering, and guiding to $200 billion of revenue by 2030 against a current quarter of $6.7 billion, all with next to no pushback from the press. Bubbles are normal near a top. The ...

Cash pays 5.5%. What is your money doing?| Signals and Noise, August 14

Access Newsletter There is an iron law of investing. It is called opportunity cost. Right now, risk-free cash pays around 5.5% a year. That is the bar every other investment has to clear after risk. The S&P 500 dividend yield is now 1.03%, the lowest ever recorded. The ASX 300 sits at about 3%, well below cash. And the sudden wave of private credit offerings quoting 7.5% and 8% paid monthly?...

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Cut through the noise. Each week, Signals & Noise delivers clear, evidence-based insights to help you think critically about markets, cycles, and risk. Just the signals that matter, backed by data and experience. For free, get key market summaries, visual charts, macro signals, decision-making tools, and a contrarian perspective. Smart, independent thinking sent straight to your inbox in under five minutes a week.

The Signals and Noise

Responses

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Subscribe for Free