The Bubble Nobody Is Questioning
Grand claims, no evidence, and a press that waves them through. What the AI bubble and the debt behind it mean for how you are positioned.
We remain worried about two things that usually travel together near a top: rising debt, and the financial chicanery on open display in private credit. Above all of it sits the AI bubble. Bubbles are normal at this stage of a cycle. The sheer size of this one is not.
Look at the claims being waved through. AI will cure cancer within five years, one company will supposedly be the only one left standing in a decade, money itself will soon stop mattering, and one firm is guiding investors to $200 billion of revenue by 2030 against a current quarter of $6.7 billion. In 26 years of investing we cannot recall chief executives making claims with so little evidence and so little pushback from the press …
… the full Members Message on the AI bubble, the debt and private credit behind it, and why we think technopia and finance end this one together, plus the weekly members video …
… the instrument showing the ASX 200 is really two bets, with almost 60% in just financials and materials, and BHP and CBA alone at 21.7% of the index …
… the geopolitics of countries being told to pick a side, AI borrowing pushing up interest rates for everyone, and the rare earth knowledge China will not give up …
The AI bubble, in full: the claims, the debt, the private credit chicanery, and why we think it ends the way bubbles always do, plus the members video
The two-bet index instrument: almost 60% of the ASX 200 in financials and materials, and why owning it is really a bet on housing and China
The Oz Economy: immigration moving to the centre of the property story, and how migration and construction settings built the squeeze
Geopolitics: countries told to pick a side, and AI borrowing now large enough to lift interest rates for the whole economy
The rare earths study: why the real bottleneck is processing know-how, and the knowledge China will not hand over
The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.
Claims are cheap. Evidence is not. Premium members get the full framework, the charts and the calls, every week.
This week Steve, Tom and Jacob work through the AI bubble, an index that is really two bets, and where the real risks sit from here. Free listeners get the full episode.
Staying clear-headed in a bubble starts with knowing your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.
The full weekly issue, monthly live coaching calls with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the TMM Learning Hub, the members video and every show notes document. The average financial adviser charges around $7,000 a year. This is $9.99 a week, and you keep the knowledge forever.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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