Certainty Is Absurd
Voltaire had a point about doubt. This week: why tolerating uncertainty is the real skill in investing, what is happening underneath Australia's property numbers, and the case for buying cheap markets over expensive ones.
One of our aims in teaching investment strategy is helping people get comfortable with uncertainty. It runs against the human condition, which is exactly why we lean so heavily on market history and evidence. We do not hold to any political or economic ideology. We would rather look at the numbers, and we think expensive markets become cheap and cheap markets become expensive, in time.
… the full geopolitics chapter on the shift toward economic pressure as the tool of choice in the renegotiated global order, and why government debt headlines deserve scrutiny rather than panic …
… what Ray White's chief economist is saying about Australian property's investment case now that negative gearing incentives on new builds have changed, plus a rare, detailed account from a member working inside private lending on how opaque that corner of the credit market really is …
… the full ten cheapest markets in the world by CAPE, why Indonesia is the current textbook mean reversion case, and the complete emerging markets returns table going back to 2011 …
The Weekly Video Review, Steve, Tom and Jacob on camera walking through this week's whole issue
The geopolitics chapter: the shift toward economic pressure in the renegotiated global order, and why not to panic on government debt
The Oz Economy deep dive: what a leading property economist is saying about investment returns, and a rare first-hand account of how opaque private lending really is
Special Topics: the ten cheapest markets in the world by CAPE, and the full emerging markets returns table back to 2011
This week's stock watch: the full year result from the rare earth name we have been tracking, and what changed since last quarter
The full Episode 149 show notes, going deeper than the newsletter, including the stocks we are actually watching
The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.
It is one of the most searched questions in finance, and it spikes every time markets wobble. Nobody can call the timing, not us, not any fund manager. What is more useful than a prediction is understanding where valuations actually sit, and building a portfolio that does not need to guess the top.
This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade and tariffs. Then it is home turf: why Australian investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why blanket "average return" statistics for property and super are misleading. Free listeners get the full episode.
Every episode gets a full show notes document for Premium members: the session map, the five key takeaways, the chapter by chapter breakdown, and the stocks we are actually watching. Free listeners get the audio. Premium members get the whole session in writing.
Getting comfortable with uncertainty starts with knowing your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.
The full weekly issue, monthly live coaching calls with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the TMM Learning Hub, the members video and every show notes document. The average financial adviser charges around $7,000 a year. This is $9.99 a week, and you keep the knowledge forever.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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