Signals & Noise Free Edition | Issue: August 28, 2026
Total Money Management Free Edition • Week Ending August 28, 2026
Signals & Noise

Certainty Is Absurd

Voltaire had a point about doubt. This week: why tolerating uncertainty is the real skill in investing, what is happening underneath Australia's property numbers, and the case for buying cheap markets over expensive ones.

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This Week's Focus • The Members Message
Certainty Is Absurd
"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd."Voltaire

One of our aims in teaching investment strategy is helping people get comfortable with uncertainty. It runs against the human condition, which is exactly why we lean so heavily on market history and evidence. We do not hold to any political or economic ideology. We would rather look at the numbers, and we think expensive markets become cheap and cheap markets become expensive, in time.

… the full geopolitics chapter on the shift toward economic pressure as the tool of choice in the renegotiated global order, and why government debt headlines deserve scrutiny rather than panic …

… what Ray White's chief economist is saying about Australian property's investment case now that negative gearing incentives on new builds have changed, plus a rare, detailed account from a member working inside private lending on how opaque that corner of the credit market really is …

… the full ten cheapest markets in the world by CAPE, why Indonesia is the current textbook mean reversion case, and the complete emerging markets returns table going back to 2011 …

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Behind the Veil
While You Read This, Premium Members Already Have
In This Week's Premium Issue

The Weekly Video Review, Steve, Tom and Jacob on camera walking through this week's whole issue

The geopolitics chapter: the shift toward economic pressure in the renegotiated global order, and why not to panic on government debt

The Oz Economy deep dive: what a leading property economist is saying about investment returns, and a rare first-hand account of how opaque private lending really is

Special Topics: the ten cheapest markets in the world by CAPE, and the full emerging markets returns table back to 2011

This week's stock watch: the full year result from the rare earth name we have been tracking, and what changed since last quarter

The full Episode 149 show notes, going deeper than the newsletter, including the stocks we are actually watching

The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.

The Habit That Compounds
Being Early Is Not Luck. It Is a Habit We Have Kept for 25 Years.

Gold. Woodside. Semiconductors. Emerging markets. Energy. Oil. Korea. Each one showed up in these pages before it showed up in the news, part of a process that has averaged more than 30% a year for over 25 years. This week's Premium issue already names the cheap markets we are watching next.

See What We Are Watching Now →
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. General information only.
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From the Blog
Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?

It is one of the most searched questions in finance, and it spikes every time markets wobble. Nobody can call the timing, not us, not any fund manager. What is more useful than a prediction is understanding where valuations actually sit, and building a portfolio that does not need to guess the top.

From the Blog
Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? What History Actually Tells Us
Read the Blog →
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The TMM Podcast • Episode 149
The World Order Is Breaking

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade and tariffs. Then it is home turf: why Australian investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why blanket "average return" statistics for property and super are misleading. Free listeners get the full episode.

Spotify • Apple • YouTube
The World Order Is Breaking, and Why Australian Property Isn't Coming Back
Hit follow on your podcast platform. We put out a market update every Monday.
► Listen Now

Every episode gets a full show notes document for Premium members: the session map, the five key takeaways, the chapter by chapter breakdown, and the stocks we are actually watching. Free listeners get the audio. Premium members get the whole session in writing.

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Free Tool • No Subscription Required
What Kind of Investor Are You?

Getting comfortable with uncertainty starts with knowing your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.

Ten Minutes • Free Forever
Take the Investor Personality Test
Start the Test →
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