Signals and Noise Premium
Apr 18, 2026
Hi Premium Members
This weekā€™s Signals & Noise Premium is now live.
If you want the deeper version of what we're seeing right now, beyond the headlines and surface-level commentary, this is where we unpack it.
In this week's Premium edition, we cover:
- The groupthink trap: what Stanley Drukenmiller's dot-com loss teaches us about valuation discipline and staying out of the orbit of bubble participants
- Geopolitics: Joan Robinson's 1937 prediction playing out in real time, China's new supply chain regulations, and why trade wars are now beyond the point of reversal
- The Australian economy: auction clearance rates at their lowest since 2018, the WA 2% deposit scheme, and why we believe this property market is a bubble
- The compounding framework: why the finance industry's average return figures are wrong, how to use CAPE to calibrate your compound rate, and why buy-and-hold will not lead to superior returns
- Commodities and critical minerals: the sulfur chokepoint hiding inside the Hormuz disruption, Russia's helium export controls, and why the decisive vulnerabilities in a conflict sit upstream of the weapons themselves
- The ASX: treading water near the 200-day SMA with volatility making short-term calls difficult
You can access this weekā€™s Premium edition here:
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