At TMM, we always focus on not losing money. This is one of the reasons we developed the Risk Hierarchy.
It has been a tough 12 months for CSL. On Monday this week it fell 16% to wipe out a decade of gains. August 2025 at $270: down 17% in a day on a "content-rich" restructuring update. February 2026 at $183: down 12% on weak half-year earnings and a CEO change. May 2026 at $120: nine-year lows on a downward profit revision. That is a 57% loss in a year.
We are unsure what happens to CSL from here. That is what makes investing in single companies so difficult. Is it a buying opportunity, or a falling knife?
We believe individual companies are risky, but stock markets are not. They are not as sexy as picking individual companies, nor can you chat about an index at a dinner party, but they are a lot safer and capable of developing solid investment returns over the long term that outperform the stock pickers. Using ETFs is much safer than trying to succeed long-term with individual stock selection. If you learn a bit about asset allocation and rebalancing, you will beat most fund managers.
► New Member? Watch the TMM Members Overview
CSL is one of the most loved blue-chips on the ASX. Australian super funds hold it. Financial advisers default to it. Brokers cover it. And yet, look at the broker consensus table from July 2024 through to May 2026. The brokers stayed bullish all the way down.
| Date | Rating | Brokers | Target | Share Price | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-24 | BUY | 6 | $320 | $308.56 | 3.7% |
| Jan-25 | BUY | 8 | $332 | $276.33 | 20.3% |
| Jul-25 | BUY | 12 | $315 | $250.66 | 25.6% |
| Jan-26 | BUY | 10 | $230 | $175.28 | 31.4% |
| May-26 | BUY | 12 | $195 | $119.88 | 62.8% |
Twelve brokers. Still rating it BUY. Average target $195 against a current price of $120. These are the people who are supposed to help non-experts secure their financial goals. They have been wrong every single sample, and they are still rating it BUY at a 62.8% premium to the actual share price.
Looking at the probability of selecting individual stocks over a 20-30 year period is extremely tough, and the records show that most fund managers fail. Bessembinder's research found that just 4% of stocks generated all of the long-term market gains since 1926. The other 96% collectively returned no more than US Treasury bills. The maths is brutal. Stock picking is a game most professionals lose.
The Trump-Xi Summit. Probably the most important meeting this year. There will of course be lots of speculation, but we really need to watch the actions they each take rather than their words as they play for their respective domestic audiences.
Putin basically concedes defeat. The shift in tone over the past fortnight is significant. Whether it translates into anything durable remains to be seen, but the market is starting to price a different scenario.
That quote is the lens through which to read everything that follows. Whether it is private credit, sovereign debt, or the next "AI infrastructure" financing wrapper, the playbook does not change.
Global Systemic Rupture: The Fourth Systemic Crisis (Updated May 2026) by Velina Tchakarova, Marco Felsberger, and Herbert Saurugg, published by GfKV. This is essential reading on how interlinked geopolitical, economic, and energy systems are failing in parallel. The framework explains why the current period feels different to anything we have lived through, and why diversification across systems matters more than within them.
Read the PDF →
Business is not looking too positive at the moment, and we suggest it may well get worse given the repercussions of the Iran-US conflict. NAB business confidence has collapsed to -24.4. To put that in context, the only times we have seen readings worse than this in 25 years were the 2008 GFC and the COVID lockdowns of 2020. This is recession-level sentiment.
This week was all about the budget and property prices. But the real question is how to manage your investments for generating long-term wealth and also tax minimisation. The two are not the same problem, and confusing them is one of the most common errors we see.
Buffett's warning applies right now. Selling a winning position because the financial year ends in six weeks. Holding a falling stock because you do not want to "crystallise" a loss. Buying a property because the negative gearing benefits look good on paper. These are all tax-driven decisions that override investment logic, and they are all expensive in the long run.
A mixed week for the ASX, dominated by the CSL implosion. The All Ordinaries are holding around 8,900 but underneath the index, sector dispersion is widening. Healthcare crushed by CSL. Energy holding up on the oil bid. Resources mixed as iron ore continues to struggle. Banks are quietly grinding higher into what looks like another rate hike cycle.
Copper is called "Dr Copper" because it measures the health of an economy. It is in so many products that demand acts as a real-time read on industrial activity. Right now, the picture is unusual: demand looks strong, but supply is breaking.
(all human history)
(by 2050)
Source: Energy Minute. We need to mine more copper in the next 25 years than in all of human history combined.
There are several projections of commodity requirements needed to move to a net-zero emissions economy. Given that we have now entered the era of resource nationalism and security, it is safe to say commodities will probably experience strong demand going forward.
Then there is supply. Grasberg, which produced 3% of global copper (680k tonnes in 2023), has had its full production restart delayed to early 2028 due to a fatal mudslide and ongoing sulphur shortages. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are now forecasting a 3-4% deficit this year. Over the last 75 years the CAGR of copper production has been 3%, and that has been slowing recently because mine supply simply cannot keep up. Demand is likely growing more than 5% a year.
Read the article →
Lynas has plowed a difficult path to production in Malaysia, with large protests ever since it decided to locate there over a decade ago. There is a strong suspicion that some of the protesters are acting on behalf of Chinese interests, who sought to kill the competition. In this case, Lynas.
As the rare earth sector heats up, we will see more protests and interference run by both Chinese and US interests trying to secure the metals which are critical to all things tech and military. The Diplomat covered this directly this week, examining why the new Australia-US rare earth deal has sparked fresh backlash in Malaysia. The fear there is that processing operations will drag Malaysia into the middle of China-US competition. Which, of course, is exactly what is happening.
Read the article →
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE has now reached ~40.3. That is a fraction below the all-time high of 44.2 set in December 1999, right before the dot-com peak.
Shiller's own model now implies a future annual return of just 1.3% for the next decade. The CAPE is 48.5% higher than its recent 20-year average. The only time it has been higher was during the final months of the dot-com bubble.
Premium members join the team live each month. Bring your questions on current market conditions, portfolio positioning, the Wells framework, specific sectors, or your own situation. These calls are included with every Signals & Noise Premium subscription.
This week's members video is now available.
Watch on YouTube →
Available on Spotify, Apple, and YouTube. Leave a review to help us grow.
Listen on Spotify →
We will continue to update the sector scorecards, momentum indicators, and macro notes as the theme unfolds. If conditions shift, you will see it reflected in the Wells calls, Signals and Noise Premium updates, and portfolio insights.
At Total Money Management, we work alongside our clients for 12 months to help build and structure their share portfolio using disciplined, proven frameworks. Throughout the year you receive one-on-one support, guidance through market conditions, and the tools needed to manage your portfolio with confidence and clarity as you grow your wealth.
Learn About Our Courses →