Signals & Noise Free Edition | Issue: July 10, 2026
Total Money Management Free Edition • Week Ending July 10, 2026
Signals & Noise

The Biases That Cost You Money

We all carry them without noticing. The six mental shortcuts that quietly drive bad decisions, and how to build a process that does not fall for them.

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This Week's Focus • The Members Message
Know Your Own Biases
"We all hold biases unconsciously."

The message this week is simple: we all carry biases without noticing, and the investor's job is to recognise them and adjust. You cannot switch a bias off, but you can build a process that accounts for it. Recency bias has you assume recent moves will continue. Availability bias has you judge the odds of something by how easily you can recall it. Anchoring fixes you on price instead of value, and on what you have won or lost rather than the odds of a reversal from here.

Those are three of the six. The others, priming, frequency and the law of large numbers, and media bias, all push in the same direction: they get emotion to crowd out the statistics. And that is exactly when investors make their most expensive mistakes …

… the full breakdown of all six biases with the fixes we use for each, plus the weekly members video walking through how they show up in real decisions …

… the housing chart that puts credit flow next to house price growth across thirty-five years, showing exactly how lending leads prices every cycle since 1990 …

… the ASX valuation panel with our own indicator sitting neutral, CAPE at 19.6, and the full rare earths study mapping the five-year race for critical metals …

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Behind the Veil
While You Read This, Premium Members Already Have
In This Week's Premium Issue

All six investing biases, in full, with the fix we apply to each, plus the weekly members video

The housing credit instrument: credit flow against house price growth since 1990, showing how lending leads prices into every up and down cycle

The ASX valuation panel: price, trend and our own indicator sitting neutral, with CAPE at 19.6, not expensive and not cheap

Geopolitics: the on-again, off-again war, rising NATO spending, and the cracks widening in the AI story

The rare earths study: recycling, blacklists, defence pacts and new processing hubs, mapped as one five-year theme

The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.

The Calls Premium Members Have Been Reading For
We Position Before the Crowd Arrives.

The calls that show up in Premium tend to be early, unfashionable and a little uncomfortable, which is exactly why they work. It is the same disciplined process, applied for over 25 years, averaging returns of more than 30% year on year. The next one will be sitting in a Premium issue long before it makes the news. The only question is whether you are reading it.

See What We Are Watching Now →
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. General information only.

Bias costs money. Process saves it. Premium members get the full framework, the charts and the calls, every week.

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The TMM Podcast • This Week
A Bubble on a Bubble

This week Steve, Tom and Jacob dig into where real value sits when the headline index looks stretched but the average stock does not. The psychology, the valuation picture, and what it means for positioning right now. Free listeners get the full episode.

The Session Document
A Bubble on a Bubble: The Show Notes
The full companion document to this week's episode.
Read the Show Notes →
Spotify • Apple • YouTube
Mastering the Market Cycles
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Free Tool • No Subscription Required
What Kind of Investor Are You?

The biases above are easier to catch once you know your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.

Ten Minutes • Free Forever
Take the Investor Personality Test
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