Most Stocks Lose Money
The market runs on a handful of winners, and always has. A century of data, the biases that keep us holding the losers, and what it means for how you build a portfolio.
We continue the theme from last week with six more biases that sit behind most costly mistakes. Loss aversion makes a loss sting more than an equal gain feels good, so we sell winners to lock them in and gamble on losers to get even. The affect heuristic quietly swaps a hard question, what do I think, for an easy one, what do I feel. And reference points keep drifting: you plan to sell at $15, it hits $15, and suddenly you want more.
Almost all of them push the same way. They get us to hold our losers and let go of our winners, which turns out to be the most expensive instinct in investing, and the data on it is brutal …
… the full six biases with the fix we use for each, plus the weekly members video walking through how they show up in real decisions …
… the century-long study of 29,754 US stocks showing that just 1,082 companies made all the wealth, the median stock lost 6.87%, and concentration has doubled in nine years …
… the chart of Australia carrying the world's heaviest household debt, the budget poll surprise, and why the US after the GFC is the template worth studying …
Six more investing biases, in full, with the fix we apply to each, plus the weekly members video
The "most stocks lose money" study: 29,754 US stocks since 1926, why just 1,082 made all the wealth, and why we build around ETFs plus a few single names
The world's heaviest debt: the household-debt chart with Australia above every peer, and the US deleveraging lesson from after the GFC
The budget poll: the measures Australians actually support, and the surprise on capital gains and negative gearing
Geopolitics: the broken ceasefire, the read on oil, and the rising political temperature
The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.
Bias costs money. Process saves it. Premium members get the full framework, the charts and the calls, every week.
This week Steve, Tom and Jacob get into oil after the broken ceasefire, the scramble over semiconductors, and the chokepoints that link the two. Free listeners get the full episode.
The biases above are easier to catch once you know your own wiring. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, takes ten minutes and shows you your archetype, your strengths, and the blind spots that cost you money.
The full weekly issue, monthly live coaching calls with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the TMM Learning Hub, the members video and every show notes document. The average financial adviser charges around $7,000 a year. This is $9.99 a week, and you keep the knowledge forever.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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