Signals & Noise Free Edition | Issue: September 18, 2026
Total Money Management Free Edition · Sept 18, 2026
Signals & Noise

They Have It Completely Backwards

That is our own conclusion this week, not a quote. This week: why government deficits, not private speculation, are the growth lever getting blamed for the wrong reasons, and the one heuristic that actually explains every property price move.

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TLDR: This Week's Focus

Every growing economy needs more debt somewhere in the system, either from private borrowing or a bigger government deficit. The US budget deficit is growing and the US economy is running at roughly 2.75% real growth. That is not a coincidence.

US Budget Deficit & Real GDP Growth
The deficit has widened as growth has held up, not by accident.
6% 4% 2% 0% Deficit, % of GDP Real GDP Growth, ~2.75% 2020 2023 2026
Illustrative trend, not exact figures. Full breakdown and the Australian comparison in Premium.
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The Full Issue, Plus the Weekly Video Review

Why Australia's declining mortgage borrowing and a shrinking government deficit both point to slower growth ahead, a Black Swan warning from Nassim Taleb's own business partner, the one heuristic that actually explains property prices and who really absorbs the losses when prices fall, and a revisit of gold and silver after a substantial pullback since January.

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P.S. Credit availability, not sentiment, is what actually moves property prices, and the same discipline applies to your portfolio. Members get the full playbook every week, before it shows up in headlines.