Everybody's Knackered
Oil through Hormuz, chips through a handful of names, credit through a market few can see into. Every country is holding a chokepoint right now, and this week's issue maps where they sit.
Three separate pressure points are squeezing at once this week. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply and shipping insurance costs have jumped since the Iran ceasefire came apart. At home, the private credit market has grown from around $35 billion to roughly $250 billion in a decade, much of it sitting inside super funds, and the regulator has now put the sector on notice. And valuations keep stretching in patches, with one Asian market's CAPE more than doubling in twelve months while others sit near a third of that level.
… the full geopolitics chapter breaks down all three chokepoints, energy, concentration and leverage, and what each one means for how you should be positioned through the rest of 2026 …
… the Australian dwelling price chart showing Sydney and Melbourne already in negative monthly growth, and why even Perth, the strongest market of the cycle, is fading fast from its early-year peak …
… the instrument panel with the S&P 500 now 521% above its March 2009 low, exactly the scale of the last two secular tops before they turned, plus the full breakdown of a market we are watching closely in the rare earth space …
The full Members Message on video, Steve, Tom and Jacob walking through the whole issue in one sitting
The three chokepoints: the energy squeeze through Hormuz, the concentration risk in semiconductors, and margin debt at $1.5 trillion
The private credit warning: what ASIC's alarm on a $250 billion market means for anyone with superannuation
The Australian dwelling price chart, city by city, and why the property cooldown is broader than the headlines suggest
The instrument panel: the S&P 500 at 521% above its 2009 low, set against every secular top of the past 150 years
This week's stock watch: the full breakdown of a name in the rare earth space, the market it sits inside, and the numbers from its latest quarter
The full Episode 145 show notes, going deeper than the newsletter, including the stocks we are actually watching this week
The names we are actually positioned around. Not hints. The calls themselves, and the thinking behind every one.
A chokepoint does not announce itself. The investors who do well through the next stretch will be the ones who saw all three coming, not the ones reading about them afterwards.
This week Steve, Tom and Jacob unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore: the collapsed Iran ceasefire, tanker traffic through Hormuz running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance up sevenfold. Then it is over to Korea, where the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months, and why that gap makes the case for emerging markets and commodities. Free listeners get the full episode.
Every episode gets a full show notes document for Premium members: the session map, the five key takeaways, the chapter by chapter breakdown, and the stocks we are actually watching. Free listeners get the audio. Premium members get the whole session in writing.
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