Signals & Noise Free Edition | Issue: September 25, 2026
Total Money Management Free Edition · Sept 25, 2026
Signals & Noise

Prepare, Don't Predict

Next Wednesday evening we hold our anti-fragile discussion, and this issue sets it up. This week: the geopolitics rewiring global trade, the credit signal hiding in property and private credit, and why yield, not the daily price, is what actually compounds.

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The Members Message

Next Wednesday evening we hold our anti-fragile discussion. We have believed for some time that we are entering an extended period of higher than average volatility, so we need to understand a macro environment that is changing quickly, and how to protect a portfolio and even benefit from volatility and Black Swan events.

Our aim is to help you understand the macro climate and how to think about investing over the next decade or two, because it almost certainly will not resemble the last thirty years, when we basked in the glory of a US bull market.

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Earnings Yield at Different P/E Ratios
The lower the price you pay for a dollar of earnings, the higher your yield.
10% 6.5% 5% 0% P/E 20 P/E 19.5 P/E 10
Illustrative, not a forecast. Full breakdown of why this matters more than the daily price in Premium.
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The Full Issue, Plus the Weekly Video Review

Why the Xi-Trump meeting and a hacked BYD are two sides of the same story for Australia, the credit signal running through property and private credit, and why we are sceptical of dollar cost averaging as an automatic default. Plus this week's Members Message video, on camera with Steve, Tom and Jacob.

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P.S. Our next anti-fragile discussion is Wednesday evening. Members get the full framework first, before it shows up anywhere else.