Starting Valuations Matter
The NASDAQ took 15 years to get back to its 2000 peak. Today's valuations look uncomfortably familiar.
The Members Message
The NASDAQ peaked in March 2000. It took until April 2015 to get back to that level. That is 15 years without a new high, 15 years waiting for it to make up the losses.
In March 2000 the CAPE was 44. Today it is around 40. When commentators talk about “missing out on returns”, it pays to remember that missing out in the short run can be good for you in the long run.
Why we think most fund managers get this wrong, what the property debate just taught us, and the two questions every investor should ask right now…
The rest of this week's Members Message is for Premium members.
Free vs Premium This Week
| What's in this issue | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| This week's headline thesis: starting valuations matter | ✓ | ✓ |
| Podcast episode and full show notes | ✓ | ✓ |
| The full Members Message, with 2000 and today compared side by side | · | ✓ |
| Weekly Video Review with Steve, Tom and Jacob | · | ✓ |
| World: new trade walls, a possible Iran campaign after the US midterms, and what to watch in oil | · | ✓ |
| AUS: the worst housing correction since 1980 at this stage, city by city, and what September's inflation means for 3 November | · | ✓ |
| Special topic: the AI capital cycle, and why we would wait for the survivors | · | ✓ |
| Markets: Brazil's election sell-off through a valuation lens | · | ✓ |
A dot marks what is in Premium only.
Inside the Premium issue: a chart of every major Australian housing fall since 1980, and where 2026 already sits among them after just seven months.
Why Members Join Premium
- The full weekly issue, with every chart and our view on what it means for your portfolio.
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The calls Premium members have been reading for
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. General information only.
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This Week's Podcast
A gloomier IMF, Brazil's election sell-off, who really gets paid when interest rates rise, the volatility drag equation, and a listener question on Indonesia. Free listeners get the full episode and the show notes.
Listen:This week's episode on Spotify, Apple and YouTube →
Show notes:Is It Cheap? Will It Go to Zero? Brazil, Indonesia and the card player's edge →
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
