This Week's Focus
CSL Just Wiped Out a Decade
On Monday, CSL fell another 16% in a single day. The stock now sits at $120, down from $290 in 2025. That is a 57% loss in twelve months for one of the most loved blue-chips on the ASX. A decade of gains, gone.
It is brutal. It is also exactly the kind of risk we have been warning about. CSL was supposed to be a "set and forget" core holding. The kind of stock financial advisers put in client portfolios and never explained why. The fund managers who are paid to know better stayed bullish all the way down, with broker consensus stuck on "BUY" through every leg lower. Their average price target in May 2026 sits at $195. The stock is at $120.
This is why at TMM we always focus on not losing money. It is why we built the Risk Hierarchy. Individual companies are risky. Stock markets, properly approached through ETFs with disciplined asset allocation and rebalancing, are not. They are not as sexy as picking the next big winner, you cannot brag about an index at a dinner party, but they are vastly safer and they outperform the stock pickers over twenty and thirty year periods. The data on this is…
… unambiguous. Bessembinder's research showed that 4% of stocks generated all of the long-term market gains since 1926. The other 96% collectively returned nothing more than US Treasury bills. The implications for anyone trying to pick winners are stark, and the broker target table for CSL tells the same story in real time …
Steve has spent this week working through the full broker consensus history (12 brokers, all still rating CSL a BUY at 62.8% target premium to current price), the CAPE update now sitting at ~40 in the US versus the ASX's far more reasonable level, the Galbraith warning on financial innovation, the Tchakarova Global Systemic Rupture document, and what the Trump-Xi summit means for …
Plus the full Oz Economy review with NAB business confidence at -24.4, the Iran-US conflict spillover, Dr Copper signalling a 3-4% deficit this year, the Grasberg mine shutdown, and why the Lynas Malaysia protests reveal the dirty politics of rare earths …
Want the rest? Premium subscribers received the full edition this morning, including the broker consensus deep dive, Steve's geopolitics review, the Trump-Xi summit analysis, and four special topics on copper, rare earths, and tax.
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