By now, all the ships loaded with oil and other goods that left the Gulf before the conflict have reached their destination. From here on, we see an increasing probability of supply shortages. If we are correct, stock markets may move quickly to reprice the companies affected, which is to say things may get very volatile, very quickly.

Be alert, not alarmed. Well, maybe a little alarmed.

The bigger story this week is not the war. It is the structural shift now underway. Trump has reportedly called off the next attack. Europe and China are openly trading complaints about each other's trade and investment policies. The Albanese-Chalmers budget signalled a directional change in Australian fiscal policy that almost no one in the property-investment world has fully digested yet. Money used to be the goal. Now, increasingly, stuff is.

Houses will become homes again, like they were in our grandparents' generation. They will no longer be a way to grow wealth through capital gains or tax tricks. Stocks will be for income generation, with long-term wealth building shifting back into vehicles like superannuation. Entrepreneurship will continue, but it will be driven by government and military working with larger companies, not lone-wolf founders chasing capital appreciation. The financialisation of every aspect of the economy is …

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