At some point the impacts of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are going to bite. Probably a few weeks left to resolve this. But given the intransigence of both sides regarding the nuclear materials, we could be staring down the barrel of a significant global event.

The ramifications from halting the flow of oil and other products will start showing up on supermarket shelves with potential shortages and higher prices, and work their way through the rest of our daily lives. While we don't want to sound alarmist, it is becoming more and more difficult to see how we can resolve the potential impacts. Most energy experts are saying this is the worst energy crisis in history. The impacts, regardless of when the war finishes, are going to be felt for a very long time.

This is structural change, not cyclical. It will change trade, economies, and financial systems. It will impact all sectors because energy is the base of our industrial society. The energy transition is now all about energy security, where economic matters will be given priority over environmental matters. Government policies will dominate free markets. The role of government is going to be dominant for at least the next decade, and it will be much more about demand management than supply expansion. It is why all investments must be looked at with fresh eyes. The old days are …

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