The Signals and Noise

Apr 10, 2026

Ending April 10, 2026

Hi Members

This week’s free edition of Signals & Noise is now live.

We’re looking at a market being pushed around by headlines, geopolitics, and sharp swings in sentiment, but underneath the noise, the bigger message remains the same.

In this week’s edition, we cover:

why recent ceasefire headlines have added to market unpredictability
what the VIX is telling us about fear and volatility right now
why the S&P 500 CAPE ratio still points to an expensive market
four longer-term valuation measures that are all flashing caution
a timely book recommendation and a podcast episode worth revisiting

The focus this week is simple: unpredictability is not the same as opportunity. For long-term investors, the goal is not to react to every headline. It is to understand what the numbers are actually saying. The free edition frames that around recent geopolitical whiplash, a VIX around 21, and a Shiller CAPE around 36.5, with Premium positioned as the deeper portfolio and valuation follow-up.

You can read this week’s free edition here:

Access Newsletter

Responses

Join the conversation

t("newsletters.loading")

Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. Signals and Noise, July 3

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is live, and it is a different beast. We have rebuilt the newsletter from the ground up as a full magazine-style issue. Have a look, it is worth the click on its own. The theme this week: market tops are a process, not a point. The contrarian looks foolish for six to twelve months before being right, and the declines that follow are littered wi...

4 weeks of Premium, free (ends June 30) | Signals & Noise June 26

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is live, and there is a deadline attached. Until June 30, you can get four weeks of Signals & Noise Premium completely free. That includes next week's live coaching call with Steve, Tom and Jacob, the full weekly edition, the members video, and the TMM Learning Hub. Use code SN4WF at checkout. Cancel anytime. Now to this week. In finance theory...

The tax myth that costs investors money | Signals & Noise, June 19

Access Newsletter This week's Signals & Noise is live. With the recent tax changes, it is worth looking past the speculation and the bias to see what the impacts really are. The idea that investment simply stops because of tax is almost certainly wrong. Imagine a market where buyers exist but, according to the doomsayers, nobody will invest because of those dreaded taxes. There is always one...

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Cut through the noise. Each week, Signals & Noise delivers clear, evidence-based insights to help you think critically about markets, cycles, and risk. Just the signals that matter, backed by data and experience. For free, get key market summaries, visual charts, macro signals, decision-making tools, and a contrarian perspective. Smart, independent thinking sent straight to your inbox in under five minutes a week.

The Signals and Noise

Responses

The Signals & Noise Newsletter

Subscribe for Free