The Signals and Noise

Apr 10, 2026

Ending April 10, 2026

Hi Members

This week’s free edition of Signals & Noise is now live.

We’re looking at a market being pushed around by headlines, geopolitics, and sharp swings in sentiment, but underneath the noise, the bigger message remains the same.

In this week’s edition, we cover:

why recent ceasefire headlines have added to market unpredictability
what the VIX is telling us about fear and volatility right now
why the S&P 500 CAPE ratio still points to an expensive market
four longer-term valuation measures that are all flashing caution
a timely book recommendation and a podcast episode worth revisiting

The focus this week is simple: unpredictability is not the same as opportunity. For long-term investors, the goal is not to react to every headline. It is to understand what the numbers are actually saying. The free edition frames that around recent geopolitical whiplash, a VIX around 21, and a Shiller CAPE around 36.5, with Premium positioned as the deeper portfolio and valuation follow-up.

You can read this week’s free edition here:

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Cut through the noise. Each week, Signals & Noise delivers clear, evidence-based insights to help you think critically about markets, cycles, and risk. Just the signals that matter, backed by data and experience. For free, get key market summaries, visual charts, macro signals, decision-making tools, and a contrarian perspective. Smart, independent thinking sent straight to your inbox in under five minutes a week.

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