Ending November 28 2025
Video Overview
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THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
As someone who has been through multiple recessions, business and market cycles, I can tell you the root cause always start with finance. Private credit appears to be heading for a fall which will lead to more stress for the finance sector when asset prices drop as they invariably do. This, besides statements to the contrary, will spill over into other asset markets and asset prices most likely via distressed sellers.
The IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, and Moody's are all waving red flags. When long term illiquid assets meet short term urgent redemptions, private credit becomes a liquidity nightmare for investors.
Short Stories
- Immigration continues to make headlines.
- Russia-Ukraine - potential resolution? Not so fast.
- Oz - the land of milk and honey?
The Oz Economy
Property expectations are rising for 2026
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However........
An excellent summary of Australia's property bubble. Well worth a read. But one simple sentence says it all - "Higher prices require more debt". As we have stated many times before once the lending falls, so do the prices.
Whittaker's Warning
A warning regarding the perils of the property market at the moment. A short 5 minute read.
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APRA pulls out the yellow flag
Lesson of the Week
"Brokers often advise their clients to buy and hold. Focus on the average annual increases in stock prices, they say. Do not try to “time the market,” seeking the golden moment to buy or sell. What matters is the particular, not the average. Some of the most successful investors are those who did, in fact, get the timing right….. Suppose big news has inflated a stock price by 40 percent in a week, more than twice its normal volatility. What are the odds that, anytime soon, yet another 40 percent run will occur? Not impossible, of course, but certainly not large. A prudent investor would do as the Wall Street pros: Take a profit".
- Benoit Mandelbrot, The (Mis)Measure of Markets​
The TMM Podcast
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