Ending January 30, 2026
Steve's Thoughts
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THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
- Civil War. Iran? USA?
- Hi Ho silver away....and gold.....and natural gas.... and nuclear and copper.....
- The death of climate change via the Paris Agreement?
- Immigration resistence is growing. Watch One Nation.
The TMM Podcast
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The Oz Economy
Budget blowout! And as quick as a flash, nothing happened.
Inflation stays high. A reminder that economic growth is barely 2%. Housing is rising and given its weighting in everyone's income, it makes the pain feel worse. If the RBA raises rates then there is more pressure on house prices.
Ausatralia's long term average annual inlfation rate is 3.9%. So this is not a period of "high" inflation. The major concern, of course, is the impact of higher rates on mortgage repayments. But lenders are supposed to be assessed on their ability to pay 3% above current rates
Property Boom
But Victoria is different.......
The point we are making here is the influence that financial incentives and constraints have on property prices. It is not simply supply and demand.
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THE ASX
This week the ASX
Not much movement this week with the ASX up around 1% as of midday Friday. The big action is in commodities.
Lesson of the Week
Following on from last week, you want to focus on the geometric average not the arithmetic average. It's why volatility and the range of returns is so important which leads you to understand why we focus on not losing money. Check this week's blog post as well. Main point - notice the middle wheel has zero as an outcome. So if you play long enough you lose everything hence why the geometric mean is zero.
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