The Signals and Noise
Ending March 13, 2026
The Members Message
With a war raging in the Middle East, there will be plenty of speculation, predictions and guessing over the next 3-6 months.
If the past 2 weeks is anything to go by, there are 100 theories about what is happening, 100 about what Trump's strategy is, and 100 about how to make money during periods of conflict.
It won't be unlike the past 100 years, but because we are emotional beings, we will make judgements on what we hear, see and read in the heat of the moment.
Tom, Jacob and I are also susceptable to external influences. After all, we too need some input into our decision-making process.
There are plenty of opportunitists out there as well and they will use these times to pitch their product in hope of generating an income for themselves. If they are in private credit, then they pitch private credit as "safety" and a place to shelter from the volatility storm. If they are in bonds, then bonds is the place to be. Real estate....you get the picture.
This is a time to remember numbers versus narratives.
Anyone can make projections, but the numbers will often tell a simple story.
One example - you will hear a lot of analysis about what happened previously to oil, gold, stocks, etc when war broke out. While these are convincing, we need to do some secong level thinking. It doesn't mean some of the anlaysis will be wrong, indeed, there must be a few scenarios that will be right just by luck. But you have to ask is the current situation the same as previous situations before you can draw the same conclusions.
We remain wedded to the benefits of valuation as a tool to inform us about our portfolio allocation. Our message is there are times to make a lot of money and times to be cautious and both are guided by valuation. In narratives, there is always some reason to be bullish or bearish and many of these beliefs are based on hope, fears, emotions or self interest.
Numbers just are.
So be careful over the coming months and don't act too quickly based on a single story. Check whether there is an opposing argument that offers an alternative view.
Keep the long term close in your thoughts and decisions.
Or simply listen to the numbers. They are usually right in the end.
The TMM Podcast
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