The Grey Swans Nobody Is Pricing
Two wars that have become one, and four risks in plain sight that markets are choosing to ignore.
The Members Message
It is hard to say with any real confidence what the next 12 months look like. This week we asked Google's AI which countries were not contributing in some way to either the US-Iran or Russia-Ukraine conflicts. The list was very short. The two major conflicts are now really one, and their impacts are showing up everywhere at once. Diesel is just one example.
We have run masterclasses on Black Swans and anti-fragility. Next up is Grey Swans: risks that are known, foreseeable and potentially very damaging, yet treated as unlikely or ignored. We count four of them sitting in plain sight right now, starting with a US CAPE of around 42 at a time of war.
The other three, why we think markets are disconnected from them, and what that means for protecting your capital…
The rest of this week's Members Message is for Premium members.
Free vs Premium This Week
| What's in this issue | Free | Premium |
|---|---|---|
| This week's headline thesis | ✓ | ✓ |
| Podcast episode and full show notes | ✓ | ✓ |
| The full Grey Swans list and what we think markets are missing | · | ✓ |
| Weekly Video Review with Steve, Tom and Jacob | · | ✓ |
| World: the US stepping back from the Gulf, and the Starlink stand-off with Europe | · | ✓ |
| AUS: how far a major bank's house price forecast has moved, and how this downturn compares with every one since the 1980s | · | ✓ |
| Why we think the RBA is misreading unemployment | · | ✓ |
| Stock Watch: a rare earths name now listed on the ASX, and why short sellers matter | · | ✓ |
| Special topic: why critical minerals underpin our view on Australia's next decade | · | ✓ |
A dot marks what is in Premium only.
Inside the Premium issue, a major bank has now issued three different house price forecasts in seven months. We put them side by side, along with the speed of this year's fall compared with every downturn since the early 1980s.
Why Members Join Premium
- The full weekly issue, with every chart, the Stock Watch and our view on what it means for your portfolio.
- The Weekly Video Review, where Steve, Tom and Jacob walk through the week on camera.
- Monthly live coaching calls, where you can bring your own questions.
- The TMM Learning Hub, with every past issue, read in the Kajabi app on your phone.
The calls Premium members have been reading for
Gold. Woodside. Semiconductors. Emerging markets. Energy. Oil. Korea. Each was discussed in Premium before the crowd arrived, using the same disciplined process we have applied for over 25 years, averaging returns of more than 30% a year.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. General information only.
Want Help Building Your Portfolio?
Beyond the newsletter, we work with people one on one for 12 months to build and structure share portfolios designed to beat the market over time. We get to know your goals, then build a portfolio using the same valuation-aware Three Wells framework behind Signals & Noise, with support from us as markets move. The Three Wells have averaged around 25 to 30% returns over the last decade.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. General information only.
Learn more:See how we work with clients one on one →
This Week's Podcast
Europe's streets, Trump pausing the Russia sanctions Congress passed, the US midterms, why the ASX has gone nowhere, and what history says happens when you buy assets that have fallen 60 to 90%. Free listeners get the full episode and the show notes.
Listen:This week's episode on Spotify, Apple and YouTube →
Show notes:Chaos or Recovery? Buying Low in a World on Fire →
What Kind of Investor Are You?
Buying low takes a bit of bravery. Our free investor personality assessment, built on the Enneagram framework, shows how you are wired to react when markets fall. It takes about ten minutes.
Free:Take the investor personality test →
Get the full picture every week
The average financial adviser charges around $7,000 a year. Signals & Noise Premium is $9.99 a week, and you can cancel anytime.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
