Signals and Noise Premium
May 08, 2026
08/05/2026
This week's Premium edition is ready.
The biggest threat to your portfolio is not the war, the Fed, or even the CAPE at 31. It is your own unwillingness to update your views when the evidence demands it. This week Steve makes that case directly, then walks through what every asset class is actually paying you right now. The numbers are uncomfortable.
Here is what is inside:
- The Members Message: why bias destroys returns, the Trump foreign policy honesty piece, and what "time in the market" gets dangerously wrong right now
- Expected returns by asset class: full US vs Australia comparison (S&P dividend 1.5%, P/E 66, cash beats earnings yield)
- Steve's Review: Geopolitics, War Round 2, the Japan-Australia critical minerals partnership announcement
- Steve's Review: The Oz Economy, the RBA hike to 4.35%, Albo handing out cash, consumer confidence collapsing below 60, Brisbane property yields converging
- Special Topic 1: Howard Marks and the JP Morgan scatter chart showing CAPE 31 equals zero returns over the next decade (with full chart)
- Special Topic 2: Buffett Indicator US 231% vs Australia 96% (side-by-side bar comparison plus the Buffett video on the indicator itself)
- Special Topic 3: Petrobras as a worked example of how to think top-down (cheap country, cheap sector, dividend, P/E 7, +88% in 6 months)
- Special Topic 4: Buffett's "It's what you don't think of that does all the damage"
- Special Topic 5: Rare earths and Asia's race to de-risk critical minerals (with the SCMP article)
- This week's members video
- TMM Podcast: latest episode
- The TMM Wealth Journey: 12 months of portfolio building
Read the full edition below.
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